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A Few SCOX Questions | 14 comments (14 topical, editorial, 6 hidden)
Why isn't SCOX trading under 1 (4.58 / 12) (#6)
by codswallet on Mon Nov 8th, 2004 at 17:02:14 EST
(User Info)
The argument that SCOX's price is maintained by trading among the institutional holders is attractive, but the evidence is otherwise,at least for long and intermediate term price movement.

The problem is that the cast of institutions changes from quarter to quarter. For the latest reported quarter we have:

Total Shares Held:      54  7,477,374  

New Positions:           9  1,003,990  

Increased Positions:    22  1,620,701  

Decreased Positions:    20  1,491,127  

Holders With Activity:  42  3,111,828  

Sold Out Positions:     11  492,849  

Also the institutions aren't an oligarchy engaged in an illuminati conspiracy. It includes:

TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY   113,300

PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF OHIO
50,600

UBS SECURITIES LLC  563,611  up 190,831  51.19%  
Total Positions:  3,318  
Total Market Value (in $ millions):  36,060  

ING INVESTMENTS LLC  143,100 new position
Total Positions:  1,549  
Total Market Value (in $ millions):  12,371  

CHESAPEAKE PARTNERS MANAGEMENT CO INC/MD
381,442 new position  
Total Positions:  84  
Total Market Value (in $ millions):  1,184  

FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT /CA
403,000 new position  
Total Positions:  578  
Total Market Value (in $ millions):  2,635  

J P MORGAN CHASE & CO  50,000  new position

Total Positions:  2,937  
Total Market Value (in $ millions):  110,607  

This last is an interesting example. They have a huge market value, so they have most of their money in large caps. They seem to be trying to juice up the returns with lots of high risk small caps, mostly tech, particularly biotech. For manyof these stocks it's a high risk value play, because theys have been badly beaten up. Given the amount of diversification they have, this isn't a bad idea. It does mean, however that they can't spend a lot of time on a given stock. SCOX is .0001% of their holdings. This overstates the case a bit, since the reported result is probably a consolidated result across a number of accounts. Even so SCOX is hardly a big deal to them. Some examples of what they held in the reported quarter.

STAMPS COM INC
CARDIODYNAMICS INTL COR
BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICAL  
CANDELA CORP
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICA
CHINADOTCOM CORP
GERON CORP  
SCICLONE PHARMACEUTICAL
OSTEOTECH INC
INKINE PHARMACEUTICALS
GUILFORD PHARMACEUTICAL
EMISPHERE TECHNOLOGIES
MAXIM PHARMACEUTICALS
LIQUIDMETAL TECHNOLOGIES
SUPERCONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGIES
SIRNA

This is a scary bunch of stocks. I've cherrypicked these based on what I know about them and their notoriety. The rest of the holdings aren't all risky, but there are many more not significantly safer in which they've made larger bets. For instance, they have  $7.6 million of Angiotech
and $1.6 million of Amylin.

So what does that mean? I think it means that while we have to be suspicious of Royce, Capital Guardian and Krevlin, much of the money is either from clueless investors who like the financials (I did say clueless) and large institutions who own SCOX as a very small part of an investment strategy and can't spend that much time investigating it.

Even if Morgan's portfolio management staff is paid $200 million a year, .0001% of this is $200. This doesn't buy much scrutiny. Say they spend %1 of their investment on investigation. That's $1,800 - maybe part of a day of somebody's time with overheads.

That said, the institutions mostly don't trade that much. This makes SCOX very thinly traded and volatile in the short term. It's hard to liquidate large positions and the price is subject to manipulation.

Still, if the situation deteriorates too much more, the clueless and casual institutions will bail. Nobody with any inclination to do so will have the ability to hold up the price.

It's hard to know what the trigger will be, but Darl will be deposed November 16. I suspect that IBM will use whatever comes out of this in a motion attacking SCOX. This would allow the deposition to be made public (SCOX will try to seal it. IBM may then file a redacted version).

This is only one possibility. There's potential bad news coming from the Autozone, IBM and maybe the Novell and Daimler-Chrysler cases, as well (DC can still file counterclaims, since the case isn't dismissed and can't be without DC's consent).


A Few SCOX Questions | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 editorial, 6 hidden)
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