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A Few SCOX Questions


SCO v The World

By ColonelZen, Section SCO Related Articles
Posted on Mon Nov 8th, 2004 at 00:27:44 EST

A Few SCOX Questions

Here follow some of my answers to questions which have been raised about the SCOX claims and lawsuits. I am not an attorney or financial advisor; these represent my opinions only.

This material condensed and reorganized from material I have previously submitted on the Yahoo financial board for SCOX. Some of this has been collected together in the FAQ section of yahoeuvre. Other material has been added.

Does SCOX have any claim on Linux?

In my very strong opinion no. There are only three kinds of lawfully claimable IP, patents, copyrights, and trade secrets.

SCOX has no pertinent patents and if ever there were trade secrets released to Linux they are no longer trade secrets by virtue of having been released in Linux - whomever contributed such might be liable, but Linux users would not be beholden in any way. And the technologies controlled by SCOX are ancient and were distributed to academia for teaching purposes long before SCOX's "predecessor in interest", Santa Cruz Operations, bought the Unix business from Novell.

That leaves copyright. But SCOX has several hurdles before establishing copyright claims against Linux code. First is that the only code to which SCOX has any claim at all which may be ancestral to any Linux code is SysV, and several independent studies, including those by SGI and HP, have found no significant overlap between SysV and Linux. The second is that SCOX may not own copyright to SysV code; for a long time it was assumed that they did, but when SCOX began it's claims Novell averred that they never sold copyright. To date the only documentation to SCOX's claim to copyright, the APA and second amendment to it between Novell and Santa Cruz in 1995 and 1996 respectively, do not appear to be a clear copyright conveyance under law as per Judge Kimball in a hearing of SCOX's slander of title suit against Novell. Third is that SysV is largely derived from System 32v code which in USL v BSDI judge Debevoise found the bulk of copyrights thereto are very likely unenforcible. Fourth and finally, to establish copyright infringement SCOX would have to establish clear provenance for specific lines of code in specific files from SysV which are also in Linux. A large part of the USL v BSDI outcome was based upon AT&T, not (under it's antitrust consent decree) not being in the software business as such and therefore being very lax in tracking specific contributions from licensees versus code written directly under it's auspices. It is very likely in many cases that exact authorship and therefore copyright of particular code in SysV cannot be established at all.

Will IBM settle with SCOX?

IBM's customers want assurance that IBM respects their confidentiality and abides by law. Total vindication of IBM by court ruling will aid that comfort; a settlement would leave doubt in some minds.

A reputation for integrity is a large part of IBM's business. The cost of pursuing the lawsuit is insignificant compared to their current and future business prospects. As for recovery I can make a good argument for more than 1B in damages; SCOX cannot pay, but Canopy could be liable for a large part of it and if they can get a 10th of that from Canopy, then they will have covered their legal costs, and still won vindication for comfort of their customers and good will from us with an interest in Linux.

Vengance is also a reason. It's part of our evolutionary heritage for good reason. If IBM demonstrates that it will extract maximum damage to those attacking it, it changes the cost/benefit equation of those thinking about such in the future. Some argue that corporations don't have emotions. But business and legal actions are conducted by human beings who do have emotions. The "logical" and accounting issues are adequate for IBM to push this to it's conclusion. And that the emotional issues also favor that conclusion, negative against making an adversary of IBM and positive for good will of techies who are or will be in position to do business with IBM in the future, all lead me to believe that IBM will push this at minimum to bankruptcy for SCOX.

SCOX will not have assets to cover the damages which will eventually be levied against it, but SCOX is, to some extent under the influence of Canopy, and Canopy's coffers are enough to pay enough damages to at minimum cover IBM's legal costs. There will never be a settlement with between IBM and SCOX, but I would not at all be surprised at some point to see a settlement between IBM and Canopy ... which will include the dismantling of any remaining remnant of SCOX.

SCOX has no positive value to anyone but it's few remaining customers - and either Novell or RedHat possibly with assistance from IBM will be able to do better for them than SCOX can. SCOX will not be missed by anyone and has no positive contributions to make to the technical or business landscape.

Could somebody else buy SCOX out?

(Largely from Y SCOX 119998)

A buyout won't happen.

IBM won't because they want SCOX crushed and made an example of. They also know enough and are powerful enough to know that fighting up front is cheaper than danegeld.

Other parties won't buy them out because buying SCOX at this point in time means buying liability for all the potential claims against SCOX for it's recent business practices. SCOX's attornies' admissions in the September 15th (2004) hearing practically admitted Lanham act violations by SCOX president Darl McBride.

Microsoft could theoretically afford to fight and pay those claims against SCOX as SCOX but if they buy SCOX out, with the outing of their involvement in Baystar deal from the Anderson memo, and with their anti-trust conviction on record, those claims would expotentate as half the court battle for additional claims against MS would already be a matter of public and judicial record.

Why Isn't SCOX already trading under one?

Approximately 90% of SCOX is held by insiders and institutions. There is very little liquidity in this stock. Because of this leverage those insiders can trade among themselves or support the stock at any given price with very little outlay of cash (this may or not be unlawful depending upon technicalities). The price at any given time is a reflection of what those insiders think of the stock and what they hope or want to do with it in the future; it has almost nothing to do with what "the market" or the public thinks of SCOX as a business entity or their chances in court. The only constraint upon the insiders' manipulation of the stock price is the risk that they may be seen in violation of SEC regulations.

The balance of trades are more than likely day and short term traders who may see an opportunity for short term profit in the volatility of this stock near the price set by the insiders. It is possible to make a profit this way, but very risky.

A common thought here on the SCOX board is that many of the insiders are caught in "the prisoner's dilemma". They all know that SCOX is headed for bankruptcy but all realize that any one of them dumping their holdings will reduce the stock price to near zero, hence they watch each other and each unload in small amounts when they think they can, each hoping that none of the others bails first. While not all of us are completely sold on the applicability of this theory it remains a real possibility: SCOX could tank completely to under $1/share on almost any day.

Why is IBM willing to be so supportive of Linux?

(Largely from Y SCOX 126428)

That's easy. Without Linux they have to support six operating systems and utility tool sets over four platforms. They're hoping over time to wind that down to two or three -- with the community doing the bulk (not all) of the work for linux. Supporting MS, AIX, AS400 (what is it's OS?), z/VM, zVSE and zOS are a major expense. (I would love to see if/how they plan to move z/OS workloads to linux. Off hand It wouldn't be easy, but it could be technically exciting if they're planning it!). This means potentially drastically cutting expenses while maintaining margin on hardware.

Additionally, of course they're well aware that MS's TCO/machine is way out of proportion and smell a long term vulnerability which they are and have been positioning to exploit.

How many SCOXies does it take to change a lightbulb.

(from Y SCOX 155066)

(I'll start, not very good:)

Three:

Darl to claim to own the darkness.
Biff to explain how the bulb fits into the wrong hole.
Ledite to stick his finger in the socket and scream "Strong Buy"

----------------------
Copyright 2004 by T. W. Zellers. This article is made available for publication under terms of the Creative Commons License, version 2.

< The Joys of Parenthood (53 comments) | GrokLaw Does Book Reviews (24 comments) >
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A Few SCOX Questions | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 editorial, 6 hidden)
Why isn't SCOX trading under 1 (4.58 / 12) (#6)
by codswallet on Mon Nov 8th, 2004 at 17:02:14 EST
(User Info)
The argument that SCOX's price is maintained by trading among the institutional holders is attractive, but the evidence is otherwise,at least for long and intermediate term price movement.

The problem is that the cast of institutions changes from quarter to quarter. For the latest reported quarter we have:

Total Shares Held:      54  7,477,374  

New Positions:           9  1,003,990  

Increased Positions:    22  1,620,701  

Decreased Positions:    20  1,491,127  

Holders With Activity:  42  3,111,828  

Sold Out Positions:     11  492,849  

Also the institutions aren't an oligarchy engaged in an illuminati conspiracy. It includes:

TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY   113,300

PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF OHIO
50,600

UBS SECURITIES LLC  563,611  up 190,831  51.19%  
Total Positions:  3,318  
Total Market Value (in $ millions):  36,060  

ING INVESTMENTS LLC  143,100 new position
Total Positions:  1,549  
Total Market Value (in $ millions):  12,371  

CHESAPEAKE PARTNERS MANAGEMENT CO INC/MD
381,442 new position  
Total Positions:  84  
Total Market Value (in $ millions):  1,184  

FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT /CA
403,000 new position  
Total Positions:  578  
Total Market Value (in $ millions):  2,635  

J P MORGAN CHASE & CO  50,000  new position

Total Positions:  2,937  
Total Market Value (in $ millions):  110,607  

This last is an interesting example. They have a huge market value, so they have most of their money in large caps. They seem to be trying to juice up the returns with lots of high risk small caps, mostly tech, particularly biotech. For manyof these stocks it's a high risk value play, because theys have been badly beaten up. Given the amount of diversification they have, this isn't a bad idea. It does mean, however that they can't spend a lot of time on a given stock. SCOX is .0001% of their holdings. This overstates the case a bit, since the reported result is probably a consolidated result across a number of accounts. Even so SCOX is hardly a big deal to them. Some examples of what they held in the reported quarter.

STAMPS COM INC
CARDIODYNAMICS INTL COR
BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICAL  
CANDELA CORP
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICA
CHINADOTCOM CORP
GERON CORP  
SCICLONE PHARMACEUTICAL
OSTEOTECH INC
INKINE PHARMACEUTICALS
GUILFORD PHARMACEUTICAL
EMISPHERE TECHNOLOGIES
MAXIM PHARMACEUTICALS
LIQUIDMETAL TECHNOLOGIES
SUPERCONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGIES
SIRNA

This is a scary bunch of stocks. I've cherrypicked these based on what I know about them and their notoriety. The rest of the holdings aren't all risky, but there are many more not significantly safer in which they've made larger bets. For instance, they have  $7.6 million of Angiotech
and $1.6 million of Amylin.

So what does that mean? I think it means that while we have to be suspicious of Royce, Capital Guardian and Krevlin, much of the money is either from clueless investors who like the financials (I did say clueless) and large institutions who own SCOX as a very small part of an investment strategy and can't spend that much time investigating it.

Even if Morgan's portfolio management staff is paid $200 million a year, .0001% of this is $200. This doesn't buy much scrutiny. Say they spend %1 of their investment on investigation. That's $1,800 - maybe part of a day of somebody's time with overheads.

That said, the institutions mostly don't trade that much. This makes SCOX very thinly traded and volatile in the short term. It's hard to liquidate large positions and the price is subject to manipulation.

Still, if the situation deteriorates too much more, the clueless and casual institutions will bail. Nobody with any inclination to do so will have the ability to hold up the price.

It's hard to know what the trigger will be, but Darl will be deposed November 16. I suspect that IBM will use whatever comes out of this in a motion attacking SCOX. This would allow the deposition to be made public (SCOX will try to seal it. IBM may then file a redacted version).

This is only one possibility. There's potential bad news coming from the Autozone, IBM and maybe the Novell and Daimler-Chrysler cases, as well (DC can still file counterclaims, since the case isn't dismissed and can't be without DC's consent).


Why no buyout (4.33 / 9) (#5)
by heimdal31 (heimdal31_ip_warsNO@SPAM.threenorth.com) on Mon Nov 8th, 2004 at 13:03:26 EST
(User Info) http://www.threenorth.com/sco
Just to add to the idea that IBM will not buy SCO out with thoughts that I have expressed on Yahoo SCOX before, I think the largest reason you will see no IBM buyout is because the lawsuit against SCO is the best marketing money can buy.

I'm willing to bet that IBM has spent less on the lawsuit than a commercial or two during the superbowl.  However, unlike a memorable commercial, this lawsuit has done more to change the attitudes of many in the F/OSS community than anything IBM could have done.

Remember Fear Uncertaintly and Doubt was actually a term coined by Amdahl to describe IBM.  Many in the F/OSS communties remember the IBM of old and before the SCO lawsuit were very cautious about IBM support for Linux.  I don't think that caution has gone away but I do think that many of those same suspicious people have likely contributed on Groklaw, Yahoo, Slashdot or elsewhere to help IBM.

Moreover, I suspect that many in the trenches at companies all around the world have perhaps been influenced in their decisions regarding IBM solutions because of IBM's actions against SCO.

If IBM makes any type of settlement that gives SCO money, then there will be some type of tacit admission of guilt.  Forgetting what that could do to IBM's own marketing if companies think IBM played fast and loose with IP, such an admission will severely undercut a truly amazing amount of goodwill that IBM has built up in the F/OSS community.  

That goodwill is worth much, much more than anything IBM risks losing in court.  And it is considerably more than anything IBM will ever offer SCO in a settlement.  Thus, in addition to the arguments ColonelZen made above, it is not at all likely that IBM will settle with SCO--and the fact that the SCO principals never saw this when they started it all just shows how poorly the really understand what they are up against.

---Tim Rushing

Re: A Few SCOX Questions (4.00 / 8) (#2)
by crunchie812 on Mon Nov 8th, 2004 at 01:41:43 EST
(User Info)
Was the lightbulb bit necessary? I guess inside jokes are appropriate at this stage.

Nice collection of your excellent SCOX posts.

RE: Why is IBM willing to be so supportive of Linux?
You cover the technical and logistic reasons.  With Linux, IBM is also supporting the F/OSS development model and community by extension. Linux is just the most visible and publicized of IBM open source involvement.

IBM has determined that F/OSS represents a viable business model. It is not antithetical to their proprietary software, it complements and enhances it. In short, IBM gets it.

The challenge for F/OSS is reaching corporations who are not software/computer vendors and educating them to the potential benefits of the F/OSS development model compared to proprietary vendors. Its continued success, possibly continued existence, depends on reaching a tipping point where the majority of moneyed interests are threatened by attacks on F/OSS.  


  • Re: A Few SCOX Questions by heimdal31, 11/08/2004 09:15:49 EST (4.00 / 5)
Re: A Few SCOX Questions (3.83 / 6) (#3)
by pgk (PG_King zzzzzzz (yahoo.com)) on Mon Nov 8th, 2004 at 05:29:39 EST
(User Info)
> AS400 (what is it's OS?)

That'd be OS/400 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OS/400

Re: A Few SCOX Questions (3.40 / 5) (#1)
by ColonelZen (tzellers lieth within pobox of thy kingdom com) on Mon Nov 8th, 2004 at 01:25:48 EST
(User Info)
Errata - just to keep the grammar police at bay, and more significantly to attune my mind to looking for these kinds of errors in the future.  I told you writing was hard work; this is mostly cut&paste from other old posts of mine, but I should have done a better job of editing.

Para 2. Elided "is" after "material".
Para 3. Should be a colon or period after IP; the comma is confusing.
Para 5. Superfluous comman after "studies" in sentence "First is...".  "not" duplicated before and after parentetical in sentence "A large part...".  "it's" should be "its" in the parenthetical.
Para 7. Superfluous commas.  The runon sentence should be split.
Para 8. Word "reason" duplicated.
Para 9. Superfluous commas in the first sentence.
Para 11. Terminating preposition.  Clumbsy construction of following sentence.
Para 18. Superfluous material, appropos in thread but not here.

-- TWZ


Bye bye spambot (none / 1) (#12)
by Potential Recruit on Mon Nov 27th, 2006 at 12:11:24 EST
This used to be a spambot post that is flooding the site. Due to volume, I had to resort to this while I work to block access by these bots. My apologies - thanks for your patience.

Jeff

Bye bye spambot (none / 0) (#14)
by Potential Recruit on Tue Nov 28th, 2006 at 11:33:51 EST
This used to be a spambot post that is flooding the site. Due to volume, I had to resort to this while I work to block access by these bots. My apologies - thanks for your patience.

Jeff

A Few SCOX Questions | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 editorial, 6 hidden)
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