To be sure most of their current customers will likely continue to see MS products as superior for their needs for the 2-3 year window and probably a near majority in the 5yr timeframe. The problem is that they are not competing with a similarly priced competitor, but with a zero priced competitor. And the TCO studies funded by MS are clearly stacked in MS's favor; certainly there are many instances where MS is still the "right" economic answer today, and likely for the next upgrade cycle; but it is nowhere nearly as universal a truth as MS wants the corporate world to believe - and the corporate world is becoming more aware of that with every article and whisper of Linux and OpenOffice.   And the situations where it is either clearly or marginally true are becoming less frequent as more of the workforce gains experience with Linux and OO.

Absent a release of spectacularly successful new technologies (no, what's been hyped about Vista isn't) there is no possibility of the Windows and Office markets supporting a doubling of the value of MS as a corporation.

That huge cash box MS is sitting on theoretically could be a force rapidly augmenting MS's capital value ... IF (big IF!) MS developed skill as a high tech investment/incubator company. But historically MS has shown no evidence of talent in that direction despite several attempts.

In short, I dont see it happening.

A medium term investment in MS ahead of the Vista release might be a successful play. I seem to recall reading that MS always has gone up following release of a new version of the OS. But I'd say even that's rather risky - in the past there was no significant potential threat; now there is given how well and widely Linux is now entrenched and the growing awareness of OpenOffice.