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By JCausey, Section SCO Related Articles
Yesterday (12/22), The SCO Group held their 4th quarter conference call to report on the results of operations for 2005. This would be for the year that ended October 31, 2005. They also released a press release covering most of their financial data, but their full 10-K is not available from the SEC yet.
Of course, one of the big questions for those following SCO's assault on Linux is whether they will be able to stay in business long enough to get into the courtroom (assuming the case is not resolved before then). There has been much speculation in the past that various parties were either interested in helping to finance SCO in their litigation strategy or thought it was a good wager. However, as PIPE deals soured and information came to light that may help connect the dots, it appeared those various sources may have distanced themselves. I believe this left SCO in the position of needing a new strategy. I think their solution was to take the steps necessary to reorganize their business and operations so it could sustain them long enough to get to trial. As others have noted, SCO has recently taken to portraying themselves as an actual software company. Since the end of fiscal 2005 for SCO, two events have occurred of note. First, they made their last payment to BSF at the start of December. Second, they secured $10M in new money at about the same time. In light of SCO's conference call (which apparently was well attended by Y! SCOX board members and not much of anyone else), I thought it was time to take a look at their financial position and what the next couple years may hold.
The main thing I wanted to focus on in this analysis was determining whether SCO's Unix business was profitable and cash flow positive or not. Since filing their lawsuit against IBM and subsequent parties, it has been the Unix business supporting the company as their attempts to collect revenues from their claim of IP infringement in Linux has fallen flat on its face. Thus, the Unix business has had to pay not only for itself, but for all of the litigation related expenses. Keeping the Unix business profitable against the competition (especially from Linux) would have been challenge enough without the additional burden of the lawsuit.
During the conference call, Bert Young contended that SCO's two goals for the year were to generate profitability and positive cash flow. He proclaimed that both of those were achieved were it not for litigation expenses. Given that a major portion of their litigation expenses should be behind them now, it seems to follow that SCO would now become a cash flow positive and profitable company as a whole. But is that accurate?
The Unix Business Isolated For their "Products", they have what appears to be a fairly profitable revenue center. Their gross margin percentage hovers around 91%, so any revenue they make really helps them out. However, sales continue to slide in that area, dropping from $9.7M in the first quarter of 2004 all they way down to only $7.1M this latest quarter. My projections (using simple linear regression) point to this dipping to only about $6.2M quarterly revenue by this time next year (it looks like they are losing 10-15% of their business each year). Recently there was some news about McDonald's implementing a Microsoft Windows solution in their locations. McDonalds is supposed to be one of SCO's larger customers, though I don't know what percent of their business is attributed to McD's. It is not a given that McD's move will necessarily result in lost sales for SCO, but that would seem to be a reasonable conclusion. Thus, I tend to think the projections I did may be overstated somewhat. As for their services revenue, it is much the same story. They did experience a significant drop off in revenues from services from 2004 to 2005, though it appears that on a quarterly basis they've been consistent during 2005. So their losses are not as great as for their products. They should still be pulling in close to $1.3M per quarter next year. However, services only provide about 48% gross margin, so it does not help them nearly as much as product sales. Overall, their non-SCOSource business is yielding about $7.1M in gross margin (about 84%) for Q4 of 2005 (a number that Bert Young mentioned, so I think my calculations are right). Based on my forecasts, this should be down to about $6.4M for Q4 of 2006 (in total, my projections indicate gross margin of $26.6M for the whole year). Against this, I next wanted to look at their other operating expenses. For Q4 of 2005, these came to about $7.4M. Looking at the different areas, their sales and marketing costs were pretty flat for the whole year, hovering around $2.9-3.0M per quarter. R&D was a little more uneven, though it looks to have settled around $2.0M per quarter. General & Administrative costs spiked up during Q1 and Q2 of 2005, but for the past 2 quarters they have settled around $1.6M. According to my calculations, SCO experienced a loss of about $246,000 for the quarter for their non-SCOSource activities. The only thing I'm not sure about is what SCOSource costs might be rolled up into these other expenses. Using the same methodology, I calculated a loss of $1.0M for Q1, and profit of $200,000 and $811,000 for Q2 and Q3 respectively. For the year then, looking at just these items, SCO only lost about a quarter million, though that was an improvement compared to 2004 when they lost about $2.2M.
Projections and Profitability When viewed in comparison to prior years, SCO has improved their operations (at least from a financial perspective). I'm not convinced they have achieved profitability, but they are very close (perhaps breaking even). As I noted earlier though, these non-SCOSource activities are expected to support their litigation efforts. They have managed to finish off their payments to BSF and we should see SCOSource costs go down quite a bit starting in Q2 of 2006 (as indicated by Bert Young during the conference call). Nevertheless, it looks like they are incurring $1.0 - $1.5M in other litigation related expenses and during the conference call they indicated these expenses are expected to start increasing over time. How much of an increase, we do not know. Even with small profits and the end of payments to BSF, it would appear that SCO is still not generating sufficient revenues to cover its litigation related expenses going forward.
Cash is King
Conclusion In the end though, it looks like SCO has achieved its two goals. At least close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades. Their non-SCOSource business is close to profitable - if not profitable, it is not bleeding the company. Likewise, they have stemmed their cash burn rate and with the conclusion of regular payments to BSF and the infusion of $10M, they should be in good position to have enough cash to make it to trial. As we have watched SCO's financial results spiral downward since filing their lawsuit against IBM, there has been considerable speculation as to whether they could last long enough financially to make it to trial. And every time the trial has been delayed, there have been new predictions that SCO may not last that long. Based on the latest results and a couple subsequent events, I have to conclude that they are in a financial position to make it to trial.
Thanks for reading,
SCOX Financial Analysis 2005 | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 editorial, 8 hidden)
SCOX Financial Analysis 2005 | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 editorial, 8 hidden)
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